Forecast performance
Every briefing includes one-week swing forecasts per asset. We grade ourselves in public: a forecast counts here only when it is directional, carries at least 60% stated confidence, and its target is at least the asset's typical weekly move — small calls that market noise would satisfy anyway are excluded, not celebrated.
A forecast is a hit when price reaches the midpoint of the predicted range within 7 days — unless it first moves the same distance the wrong way, which counts as stopped: a position opened on the call would have hit its stop-loss, so a later recovery doesn't rescue the grade. A miss is a week expiring touching neither level. Open forecasts are still inside their window. Updated daily, rolling 30-day window.
By asset
| Asset | Hits | Stopped | Misses | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVX | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| SHEL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| OXY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| VIX | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| TWD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ILS | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| BRENT | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| BP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| MSTR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| CORN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| WTI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| COTTON | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| XOM | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
All graded forecasts
| Date | Asset | Call | Target | Realized | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9 | MSTR | bearish | -7.0% | -0.7% | Open |
| Jul 9 | CORN | bullish | +2.5% | -0.2% | Open |
| Jul 9 | CVX | bullish | +2.5% | -0.3% | Open |
| Jul 9 | BRENT | bullish | +4.0% | -0.9% | Open |
| Jul 9 | WTI | bullish | +4.0% | -0.6% | Open |
| Jul 9 | COTTON | bullish | +2.5% | -0.0% | Open |
| Jul 9 | VIX | bid | +10.0% | -3.8% | Open |
| Jul 9 | ILS | softer | -1.0% | +0.2% | Open |
| Jul 8 | CVX | bullish | +2.5% | -1.1% | Open |
| Jul 8 | OXY | bullish | +3.5% | -2.4% | Open |
| Jul 8 | VIX | bullish | +10.0% | -6.6% | Open |
| Jul 8 | XOM | bullish | +2.5% | -3.4% | Stopped |
| Jul 8 | CVX | bullish | +2.5% | -1.8% | Open |
| Jul 8 | SHEL | bullish | +2.5% | -1.3% | Open |
| Jul 8 | BRENT | bullish | +3.0% | -4.2% | Stopped |
| Jul 8 | BP | bullish | +2.5% | -1.9% | Open |
| Jul 8 | OXY | bullish | +3.5% | -2.2% | Open |
| Jul 8 | VIX | bullish | +10.0% | -12.5% | Stopped |
| Jul 7 | XOM | bullish | +2.5% | -3.0% | Stopped |
| Jul 7 | CVX | bullish | +2.5% | +0.1% | Hit |
| Jul 7 | ILS | bearish | -0.9% | +1.1% | Stopped |
| Jul 7 | SHEL | bullish | +2.5% | -0.7% | Open |
| Jul 6 | TWD | bearish | -0.6% | -0.4% | Hit |
Realized shows the move from the forecast's entry price to the latest price inside its 7-day window (for hits, the move at grading time — the target itself was reached earlier). 38 sub-threshold calls were excluded from grading in this window.
Last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2026 13:17:37 GMT.